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Ja'Marr Chase

Ja'Marr Chase Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 17

Kansas City Chiefs vs Cincinnati Bengals

Ja'Marr Chase Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 59.5 (-103/-127).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 59.5 @ -114 before it was bet down to 59.5 @ -127.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Cincinnati Bengals will be forced to use backup QB Jake Browning in this week's game, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.

The Bengals are a big 7-point underdog this week, likely creating an extreme passing game script.

Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Bengals to pass on 64.4% of their plays: the 2nd-highest frequency on the slate this week.

The predictive model expects Ja'Marr Chase to total 10.1 targets this week, on average, placing him in the 95th percentile among WRs.

When it comes to safeties in covering pass-catchers, Kansas City's unit has been terrible this year, projecting as the 4th-worst in the NFL.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The model projects the Cincinnati Bengals offense to be the 3rd-most sluggish paced team in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the present time, averaging 29.35 seconds per snap.

Opposing quarterbacks teams have been disinclined to rely on the passing game too much against the Chiefs, averaging the 4th-fewest attempts in the league (a lowly 32.3 per game) this year.

As it relates to pass-blocking (and the impact it has on all air attack statistics), the O-line of the Bengals profiles as the 10th-worst in the league this year.

The Chiefs defense has given up the 6th-fewest adjusted receiving yards per game in the league (just 134.0) vs. WRs this year.

This year, the daunting Kansas City Chiefs defense has yielded the 6th-least adjusted yards-per-target in the league to opposing WRs: a puny 7.3 yards.

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