Ja'Marr Chase Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 17

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Ja'Marr Chase

NFL · Player Props

Ja'Marr Chase

WR · Cincinnati Bengals

Receiving Yards

Cincinnati Bengals vs Buffalo Bills · Week 17, 2022

Updated Jan 3, 2023 1:21 AM UTC

Analysis

Ja'Marr Chase Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 83.5 (-145/+105).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 84.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 83.5 @ +105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals as the most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 67.0% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Cincinnati Bengals have called the 9th-most plays in football this year, averaging a whopping 59.9 plays per game.
The weather forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Ja'Marr Chase has run a route on 98.8% of his offense's passing plays this year, placing him in the 100th percentile among wideouts.
THE BLITZ projects Ja'Marr Chase to earn 10.8 targets in this contest, on average, placing him in the 99th percentile among WRs.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 129.1 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Ja'Marr Chase's pass-catching effectiveness has declined this season, compiling a mere 8.86 yards-per-target compared to a 10.34 rate last season.
The Buffalo Bills pass defense has performed very well when opposing WRs have gotten into space, conceding an average of 3.08 yards-after-the-catch this year: the least in the NFL.
The Buffalo Bills linebackers profile as the 2nd-best group of LBs in the NFL this year in covering receivers.
The Cincinnati Bengals O-line has afforded their QB a mere 2.49 seconds before the pass (worst in football since the start of last season), which has a negative impact on all passing game metrics across the board.

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