Ja'Marr Chase Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Ja'Marr Chase

NFL · Player Props

Ja'Marr Chase

WR · Cincinnati Bengals

Receiving TD

Cincinnati Bengals vs Atlanta Falcons · Week 7, 2022

Updated Oct 23, 2022 5:01 PM UTC

Analysis

Ja'Marr Chase Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-117/-113).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ -100 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ -117.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Opposing offenses have averaged 42.3 pass attempts per game versus the Atlanta Falcons defense this year: 2nd-most in the NFL.
Ja'Marr Chase's 69.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks him among the best in football: 95th percentile for WRs.
Ja'Marr Chase's ball-catching skills have gotten a boost this season, with his Completion% increasing from 65.7% to 69.5%.
Ja'Marr Chase ranks in the 96th percentile among wideouts when it comes to catching TDs this year, averaging a stellar 0.67 per game.
The Atlanta Falcons defense has surrendered the 4th-most passing TDs in football to WRs: 1.33 per game this year.

Favors Under

The Bengals are a 6.5-point favorite in this game, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals offense as the 4th-most sluggish paced team in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the present time, averaging 29.60 seconds per play.
THE BLITZ projects Ja'Marr Chase to be much less involved in his offense's passing attack near the end zone this week (27.0% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (35.1% in games he has played).
Ja'Marr Chase has notched far fewer air yards this year (91.0 per game) than he did last year (109.0 per game).
The Cincinnati Bengals O-line ranks as the 6th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a harmful impact on all pass attack statistics across the board.

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