Ja'Marr Chase Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 4

NFL · Player Props

Ja'Marr Chase

WR · Cincinnati Bengals

Receiving TD

Cincinnati Bengals vs Miami Dolphins · Week 4, 2022

Updated Sep 29, 2022 11:40 PM UTC

Analysis

Ja'Marr Chase Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-119/-111).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +123 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ -119.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Opposing offenses have averaged 36.8 pass attempts per game against the Miami Dolphins defense since the start of last season: 7th-most in the league.
Ja'Marr Chase has totaled a whopping 108.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 99th percentile among WRs.
Ja'Marr Chase's 67.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks among the best in the league: 92nd percentile for wide receivers.
Ja'Marr Chase ranks in the 96th percentile among wide receivers when it comes to catching touchdowns since the start of last season, averaging a terrific 0.62 per game.
The Miami Dolphins have stacked the box versus opponents on 21.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 5th-most in football. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The Bengals are a 4-point favorite this week, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 120.9 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Ja'Marr Chase to be much less involved in his offense's passing offense near the goal line this week (26.4% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (38.1% in games he has played).
The Cincinnati Bengals O-line profiles as the 9th-worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a harmful impact on all passing offense statistics across the board.
The Miami Dolphins pass defense has yielded the 8th-lowest Completion% in the league (64.1%) to wide receivers since the start of last season (64.1%).