Ja'Marr Chase Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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NFL · Player Props

Ja'Marr Chase

WR · Cincinnati Bengals

Receiving TD

Cincinnati Bengals vs Pittsburgh Steelers · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 11, 2022 11:34 PM UTC

Analysis

Ja'Marr Chase Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+140/-170).

Key Factors

Favors Over

Ja'Marr Chase has been heavily involved in his team's passing attack near the end zone, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 22.9% since the start of last season, which puts him in the 89th percentile among wide receivers.
Ja'Marr Chase has accrued a colossal 109.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 99th percentile among wideouts.
Ja'Marr Chase's 64.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks among the best in the NFL: 93rd percentile for wideouts.
Ja'Marr Chase grades out in the 97th percentile among wide receivers as it relates to catching TDs since the start of last season, averaging a stellar 0.62 per game.
The Pittsburgh Steelers safeties rank as the 3rd-worst group of safeties in football since the start of last season in pass coverage.

Favors Under

The Bengals are a massive 7-point favorite in this week's game, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals offense as the 7th-most sluggish paced team in football (adjusted for context) right now, averaging 27.80 seconds per play.
Opposing offenses have averaged 31.7 pass attempts per game vs. the Pittsburgh Steelers defense since the start of last season: 8th-least in the NFL.
The Cincinnati Bengals O-line profiles as the 9th-worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a harmful effect on all passing game stats across the board.
The Cincinnati Bengals offensive line has given their QB just 2.49 seconds before the pass (4th-worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a harmful impact on all air attack metrics across the board.