Jamal Agnew Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 5

NFL · Player Props

Jamal Agnew

WR · Jacksonville Jaguars

Receiving Yards

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Houston Texans · Week 5, 2022

Updated Oct 9, 2022 11:15 PM UTC

Analysis

Jamal Agnew Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 11.5 (-109/-121).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 10.5 @ -106 before it was bet up to 11.5 @ -109.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jacksonville Jaguars boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.3% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects the Jaguars to call the 6th-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 66.4 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Jacksonville Jaguars O-line profiles as the 8th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive effect on all pass game stats across the board.
Jamal Agnew has been among the leading wideouts in the NFL at picking up extra yardage, averaging an impressive 5.40 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) since the start of last season while checking in at the 79th percentile.
The Houston Texans defense has conceded the 7th-most receiving yards per game in the NFL (189.0) versus WRs this year.

Favors Under

The Jaguars are a huge 7-point favorite in this game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Jacksonville Jaguars to be the 11th-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 56.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The weatherman calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
Jamal Agnew has been less involved as a potential target this year (17.8% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (45.4%).
The Jacksonville Jaguars have faced a stacked the box on a measly 11.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.