Jamal Agnew Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

NFL · Player Props

Jamal Agnew

WR · Jacksonville Jaguars

Receiving Yards

Philadelphia Eagles vs Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 11:20 PM UTC

Analysis

Jamal Agnew Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 27.5 (-115/-125).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 29.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 27.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jacksonville Jaguars will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.0% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-highest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 135.4 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 35.9 pass attempts per game vs. the Philadelphia Eagles defense since the start of last season: 10th-most in football.
THE BLITZ projects Jamal Agnew to be a more integral piece of his offense's pass game this week (10.7% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (2.9% in games he has played).
Jamal Agnew has been among the leading wide receivers in the NFL at generating extra yardage, averaging a terrific 5.27 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) since the start of last season while checking in at the 77th percentile.

Favors Under

The Jacksonville Jaguars have run the 9th-least plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a mere 58.0 plays per game.
The forecast calls for 17-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness.
The Philadelphia Eagles defense has surrendered the 3rd-least receiving yards per game in football (just 126.0) to WRs since the start of last season.
The Philadelphia Eagles pass defense has yielded the 2nd-lowest Completion% in the NFL (56.9%) versus wide receivers this year (56.9%).
The Philadelphia Eagles pass defense has displayed strong efficiency versus wideouts this year, surrendering 6.05 yards-per-target to the position: the 2nd-least in the league.