Jamal Agnew Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 16

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NFL · Player Props

Jamal Agnew

WR · Jacksonville Jaguars

Receiving Yards

New York Jets vs Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 16, 2022

Updated Dec 23, 2022 1:16 AM UTC

Analysis

Jamal Agnew Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (+110/-140).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jacksonville Jaguars boast a new play-caller this year in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.9% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
The Jacksonville Jaguars O-line ranks as the 6th-best in the league this year in pass protection, which has a positive effect on all passing game metrics across the board.
Jamal Agnew's sure-handedness have been refined this season, with his Completion% rising from 69.0% to 76.0%.
The Jacksonville Jaguars offensive line has allowed their QB 2.56 seconds before getting pressured (5th-best in the league since the start of last season), which has a positive impact on all passing attack statistics across the board.
The New York Jets have stacked the box versus opponents on 22.0% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-most in football. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Jacksonville Jaguars as the 11th-least pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 56.1% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The weather report calls for 15-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
Jamal Agnew has been less involved as a potential pass-catcher this year (14.6% Route% in games he has played) than he did last year (45.4%).
Jamal Agnew has notched significantly fewer air yards this season (16.0 per game) than he did last season (25.0 per game).
Jamal Agnew has been among the weakest WRs in the league this year, averaging a mere 19.0 yards per game while grading out in the 24th percentile among wideouts.