Jamal Agnew Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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NFL · Player Props

Jamal Agnew

WR · Jacksonville Jaguars

Receiving TD

Indianapolis Colts vs Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 6, 2022

Updated Oct 16, 2022 11:51 PM EST

Analysis

Jamal Agnew Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+306/-550).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +313 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +306.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 131.1 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Jamal Agnew to be a more integral piece of his team's passing game near the goal line this week (12.2% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (6.5% in games he has played).
The Jacksonville Jaguars O-line ranks as the 3rd-best in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong impact on all passing attack metrics across the board.
Jamal Agnew ranks in the 86th percentile among wide receivers as it relates to catching touchdowns this year, averaging a stellar 0.40 per game.
The Indianapolis Colts linebackers profile as the worst unit in football this year in covering receivers.

Favors Under

Jamal Agnew's 14.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably lower this year than it was last year at 22.6.
Jamal Agnew's sure-handedness have diminished this season, with his Completion% decreasing from 69.0% to 62.8%.
The Indianapolis Colts pass defense has surrendered the 7th-lowest Completion% in football (62.9%) versus wideouts this year (62.9%).
The Indianapolis Colts defense has surrendered the 8th-least TDs through the air in the league to wideouts: 0.60 per game this year.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have faced a stacked the box on a mere 11.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.