Jamaal Williams Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Jamaal Williams

NFL · Player Props

Jamaal Williams

RB · New Orleans Saints

Rushing Yards

New Orleans Saints vs Chicago Bears · Week 9, 2023

Updated Nov 5, 2023 9:06 PM EST

Analysis

Jamaal Williams Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 16.5 (-120/-109).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 20.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 16.5 @ -109.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Saints are an enormous 9.5-point favorite in this week's contest, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
The 2nd-most plays in the league have been run by the Saints this year (a monstrous 65.5 per game on average).

Favors Under

The model projects this game to see the 4th-smallest number of plays run out of all the games this week at 128.1 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The passing attacks of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (i.e. no wind) inside this dome, while run volume may go down.
While Jamaal Williams has earned 31.4% of his team's rushing play calls in games he has played this year, the projections expect him to be a much smaller piece of New Orleans's ground game in this game at 16.9%.
Jamaal Williams's 29.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground this season conveys a meaningful reduction in his rushing skills over last season's 66.0 figure.
Jamaal Williams's ground effectiveness has worsened this year, totaling just 3.02 adjusted yards-per-carry compared to a 4.35 rate last year.

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