Jamaal Williams Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Jamaal Williams

NFL · Player Props

Jamaal Williams

RB · New Orleans Saints

Rushing Yards

New Orleans Saints vs New York Giants · Week 15, 2023

Updated Dec 18, 2023 4:01 AM EST

Analysis

Jamaal Williams Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 21.5 (-120/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 27.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 21.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This week's line indicates a running game script for the Saints, who are favored by 6.5 points.
The predictive model expects this game to see the 2nd-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 133.6 plays, given the play styles of each team and game dynamics.
The 3rd-largest volume of plays in the league have been run by the New Orleans Saints this year (a staggering 62.1 per game on average).
This year, the tough Giants run defense has surrendered a paltry 4.95 adjusted yards-per-carry to the opposition's ground game: the 30th-lowest rate in football.

Favors Under

This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Jamaal Williams has been a much smaller piece of his offense's running game this year (25.3% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (56.8%).
Jamaal Williams has rushed for quite a few less adjusted yards per game (21.0) this season than he did last season (66.0).
Jamaal Williams's running effectiveness has tailed off this season, accumulating just 2.96 adjusted yards-per-carry compared to a 4.35 mark last season.
When it comes to the defensive tackles' role in run defense, New York's group of DTs has been exceptional this year, grading out as the best in the league.

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