Jamaal Williams Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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Jamaal Williams

NFL · Player Props

Jamaal Williams

RB · New Orleans Saints

Rushing Yards

New Orleans Saints vs Carolina Panthers · Week 14, 2023

Updated Dec 10, 2023 8:21 PM UTC

Analysis

Jamaal Williams Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 24.5 (-133/-103).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 21.5 @ -121 before it was bet up to 24.5 @ -133.

Key Factors

Favors Over

A running game script is indicated by the Saints being a 5.5-point favorite in this game.
Our trusted projections expect this game to see the 2nd-most plays run out of all the games this week at 134.1 plays, accounting for the play styles of each team and game dynamics.
The Saints have called the 2nd-most plays in the league this year, totaling a staggering 63.4 plays per game.
This year, the fierce Panthers run defense has surrendered a puny 5.01 adjusted yards-per-carry to the opposing run game: the 31st-smallest rate in the NFL.
The Panthers linebackers profile as the 3rd-worst unit in the league this year in regard to run defense.

Favors Under

The passing games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (i.e. no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may suffer.
Jamaal Williams has been a much smaller part of his team's run game this season (23.2% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (56.8%).
Jamaal Williams's 18.0 adjusted rushing yards per game this year signifies a noteworthy drop-off in his running talent over last year's 66.0 rate.
Jamaal Williams's rushing effectiveness has tailed off this year, notching just 2.78 adjusted yards-per-carry vs a 4.35 rate last year.

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