Jamaal Williams Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Jamaal Williams

NFL · Player Props

Jamaal Williams

RB · Detroit Lions

Rushing Yards

New England Patriots vs Detroit Lions · Week 5, 2022

Updated Oct 9, 2022 11:15 PM EST

Analysis

Jamaal Williams Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 63.5 (-105/-135).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 66.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 63.5 @ -135.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Detroit Lions to be the 9th-most run-heavy team on the slate this week with a 43.6% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Detroit Lions offense has played at the 7th-quickest pace in the league (adjusted for context) this year, averaging 26.63 seconds per snap.
The weatherman calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Jamaal Williams to notch 19.9 carries in this game, on average, putting him in the 99th percentile among running backs.
THE BLITZ projects Jamaal Williams to be a more integral piece of his team's run game this week (69.7% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (59.2% in games he has played).

Favors Under

The Lions are a 3-point underdog in this week's contest, likely leading to a passing game script.
The New England Patriots have stacked the box vs. opponents on 19.9% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-most in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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