Jamaal Williams Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Jamaal Williams

NFL · Player Props

Jamaal Williams

RB · Detroit Lions

Rushing TD

Detroit Lions vs Green Bay Packers · Week 9, 2022

Updated Nov 6, 2022 5:51 PM EST

Analysis

Jamaal Williams Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+107/-147).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +155 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +107.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Detroit Lions O-line grades out as the 3rd-best in football this year at opening holes for rushers.
Jamaal Williams has rushed for 1.00 TDs per game on the ground this year (on average), one of the highest figures in the NFL among running backs (99th percentile).
The Green Bay Packers safeties project as the 28th-worst safety corps in football this year in regard to run defense.
The Green Bay Packers have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 8.8% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-least in football. Choosing not to bring an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
The Detroit Lions have elected to go for it on 4th down 27.9% of the time since the start of last season (most in the league), which generally means more offensive volume, more touchdown potential, and higher offensive statistics across the board.

Favors Under

The Lions are a 4-point underdog in this week's game, likely leading to a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Detroit Lions to be the 10th-least run-centric offense in the NFL near the goal line (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 41.0% red zone run rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-smallest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 125.0 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Jamaal Williams to be a less important option in his offense's run game near the end zone this week (72.1% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been this year (85.7% in games he has played).

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