Jamaal Williams Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Jamaal Williams

NFL · Player Props

Jamaal Williams

RB · Detroit Lions

Rushing TD

Dallas Cowboys vs Detroit Lions · Week 7, 2022

Updated Oct 23, 2022 7:31 PM UTC

Analysis

Jamaal Williams Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+190/-280).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -264 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -280.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Lions to call the 2nd-most total plays among all teams this week with 66.6 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Detroit Lions O-line profiles as the 4th-best in football this year at opening holes for runners.
Jamaal Williams has run for 1.20 touchdowns per game on the ground this year (on average), one of the highest marks in the league among running backs (100th percentile).
The Dallas Cowboys defensive tackles project as the 5th-worst collection of DTs in football this year in regard to stopping the run.
The Detroit Lions have gone for it on 4th down 27.9% of the time since the start of last season (most in the NFL), which generally means more offensive volume, more TD potential, and higher offensive statistics across the board.

Favors Under

The Lions are a heavy 7-point underdog in this week's game, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects Jamaal Williams to be a less important option in his offense's rushing attack near the end zone this week (77.3% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been this year (88.2% in games he has played).
Opposing teams have run for the 2nd-least touchdowns in the league (0.33 per game) against the Dallas Cowboys defense this year.

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