Jamaal Williams Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Jamaal Williams

NFL · Player Props

Jamaal Williams

RB · Detroit Lions

Rushing TD

New England Patriots vs Detroit Lions · Week 5, 2022

Updated Oct 9, 2022 11:15 PM UTC

Analysis

Jamaal Williams Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+120/-150).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Detroit Lions offense has played at the 7th-quickest pace in the league (adjusted for context) this year, averaging 26.63 seconds per snap.
The Detroit Lions O-line ranks as the 4th-best in the league this year at run-game blocking.
Jamaal Williams has rushed for 1.50 TDs per game on the ground this year (on average), one of the largest figures in the league among running backs (100th percentile).
The New England Patriots defensive tackles profile as the 4th-worst DT corps in the league this year in regard to stopping the run.
The Detroit Lions have elected to go for it on 4th down 27.9% of the time since the start of last season (most in football), which generally means more offensive volume, more TD potential, and higher offensive statistics across the board.

Favors Under

The Lions are a 3-point underdog in this week's contest, likely leading to a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects Jamaal Williams to be much less involved in his offense's run game near the end zone this week (77.2% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been this year (88.2% in games he has played).
Opposing squads have run for the 6th-least touchdowns in the league (0.50 per game) vs. the New England Patriots defense this year.
The New England Patriots have stacked the box vs. opponents on 19.9% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-most in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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