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Jamaal Williams

Jamaal Williams Rushing TD
Player Prop Week 4

Detroit Lions vs Seattle Seahawks

Jamaal Williams Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-127/-105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +133 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ -127.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Lions are a 3-point favorite in this week's contest, indicating a rushing game script.

THE BLITZ projects the Detroit Lions to be the 10th-most run-heavy team in the NFL near the end zone (in a neutral context) right now with a 43.7% red zone run rate.

The Detroit Lions offense has played at the 10th-fastest pace in the NFL (adjusted for context) this year, averaging 26.77 seconds per snap.

Jamaal Williams has rushed for 0.44 touchdowns per game on the ground since the start of last season (on average), one of the biggest marks in football among running backs (89th percentile).

The Detroit Lions have elected to go for it on 4th down 27.9% of the time since the start of last season (most in the league), which generally means more offensive volume, more TD potential, and higher offensive stats across the board.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

THE BLITZ projects Jamaal Williams to be much less involved in his team's running game near the end zone this week (72.0% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been this year (84.6% in games he has played).

The Seattle Seahawks defensive tackles project as the best collection of DTs in football since the start of last season in regard to run defense.

The Seattle Seahawks have stacked the box versus opponents on 19.9% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-most in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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