Jamaal Williams Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Jamaal Williams

NFL · Player Props

Jamaal Williams

RB · Detroit Lions

Rushing TD

Minnesota Vikings vs Detroit Lions · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 25, 2022 4:25 PM EST

Analysis

Jamaal Williams Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+254/-427).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +285 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +254.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Detroit Lions to be the 10th-most run-oriented offense in the league near the goal line (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 43.7% red zone run rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Detroit Lions offense as the 10th-fastest paced team in the league (context-neutralized) right now, averaging 26.55 seconds per snap.
Jamaal Williams has run for 0.33 touchdowns per game on the ground since the start of last season (on average), one of the largest marks in football among RBs (81st percentile).
The Detroit Lions have elected to go for it on 4th down 27.9% of the time since the start of last season (most in the league), which usually means more offensive volume, more touchdown potential, and higher offensive statistics across the board.

Favors Under

The Lions are a 6.5-point underdog this week, likely creating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects Jamaal Williams to be a much smaller part of his offense's run game near the end zone this week (44.1% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (57.2% in games he has played).
The Minnesota Vikings safeties rank as the best unit in football since the start of last season with their run defense.

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