Jamaal Williams Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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Jamaal Williams

NFL · Player Props

Jamaal Williams

RB · Detroit Lions

Rushing TD

Detroit Lions vs Washington Commanders · Week 2, 2022

Updated Sep 18, 2022 7:30 PM UTC

Analysis

Jamaal Williams Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+271/-456).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -404 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -456.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Detroit Lions as the 5th-most run-oriented offense in the NFL near the end zone (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 45.2% red zone run rate.
The Detroit Lions offense has played at the 9th-quickest pace in the NFL (context-neutralized) since the start of last season, averaging 25.27 seconds per snap.
Jamaal Williams has earned 53.7% of his offense's red zone rush attempts since the start of last season, putting him in the 88th percentile among RBs.
Jamaal Williams has rushed for 0.36 touchdowns per game on the ground since the start of last season (on average), one of the biggest marks in the league among running backs (82nd percentile).
The Detroit Lions have gone for it on 4th down 27.9% of the time since the start of last season (most in the league), which generally means more offensive volume, more touchdown potential, and higher offensive stats across the board.

Favors Under

Opposing teams have rushed for the 10th-least TDs in football (0.83 per game) versus the Washington Commanders defense since the start of last season.
The Washington Commanders defensive ends rank as the 5th-best group of DEs in the NFL since the start of last season in regard to run defense.

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