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Jamaal Williams

Jamaal Williams Rushing TD
Player Prop Week 15

New York Jets vs Detroit Lions

Jamaal Williams Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+153/-215).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +163 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +153.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Lions have been the 9th-most run-heavy team in football near the end zone (adjusted for context) this year with a 49.0% red zone run rate.

THE BLITZ projects the Lions to call the 7th-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 67.3 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

The Detroit Lions O-line ranks as the 5th-best in the NFL this year at blocking for the run game.

Jamaal Williams has run for 1.00 touchdowns per game on the ground this year (on average), one of the largest marks in the NFL among running backs (100th percentile).

The Detroit Lions have gone for it on 4th down 27.9% of the time since the start of last season (most in the league), which usually means more offensive volume, more TD potential, and higher offensive statistics across the board.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

THE BLITZ projects Jamaal Williams to be a less important option in his offense's run game near the goal line this week (40.5% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been this year (63.9% in games he has played).

The New York Jets defensive tackles grade out as the 6th-best DT corps in the league this year when it comes to stopping the run.

The New York Jets have stacked the box versus opponents on 22.0% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-most in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

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