Jamaal Williams Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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Jamaal Williams

NFL · Player Props

Jamaal Williams

RB · Detroit Lions

Rushing TD

Detroit Lions vs Minnesota Vikings · Week 14, 2022

Updated Dec 11, 2022 5:56 PM UTC

Analysis

Jamaal Williams Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-121/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +129 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ -121.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Detroit Lions as the 10th-most run-heavy team in football near the end zone (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 44.9% red zone run rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 134.1 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Detroit Lions offensive line grades out as the 3rd-best in football this year at run-game blocking.
Jamaal Williams has rushed for 1.08 touchdowns per game on the ground this year (on average), one of the largest marks in the NFL among RBs (100th percentile).
Opposing squads have rushed for the 7th-most touchdowns in the NFL (1.08 per game) against the Minnesota Vikings defense this year.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects Jamaal Williams to be a much smaller part of his offense's running game near the goal line this week (36.7% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been this year (67.2% in games he has played).
The Minnesota Vikings defensive tackles project as the best unit in the league this year when it comes to stopping the run.

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