Jamaal Williams Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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Jamaal Williams

NFL · Player Props

Jamaal Williams

RB · Detroit Lions

Rushing TD

Detroit Lions vs Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 13, 2022

Updated Dec 5, 2022 12:46 AM EST

Analysis

Jamaal Williams Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-104/-126).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +109 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ -104.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Lions have been the 10th-most run-centric team in the league near the end zone (in a neutral context) this year with a 47.9% red zone run rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Lions to call the 6th-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 66.5 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Jamaal Williams has earned 71.7% of his offense's red zone rush attempts this year, placing him in the 96th percentile among running backs.
The Detroit Lions offensive line grades out as the 4th-best in the league this year at run-game blocking.
Jamaal Williams has run for 1.09 TDs per game on the ground this year (on average), one of the highest figures in the NFL among RBs (100th percentile).

Favors Under

The Jacksonville Jaguars defensive tackles rank as the 3rd-best DT corps in the league this year in regard to stopping the run.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have stacked the box vs. opponents on 22.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-most in football. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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