Jamaal Williams Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Jamaal Williams

NFL · Player Props

Jamaal Williams

RB · Detroit Lions

Rushing TD

Detroit Lions vs Buffalo Bills · Week 12, 2022

Updated Nov 24, 2022 4:41 PM EST

Analysis

Jamaal Williams Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+150/-180).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Lions to call the 8th-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 66.2 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Jamaal Williams has garnered 72.7% of his team's red zone rush attempts this year, ranking him in the 96th percentile among running backs.
The Detroit Lions offensive line profiles as the best in football this year in run blocking.
Jamaal Williams has rushed for 1.10 touchdowns per game on the ground this year (on average), one of the largest marks in the league among RBs (100th percentile).
The Detroit Lions have elected to go for it on 4th down 27.9% of the time since the start of last season (most in the NFL), which usually means more offensive volume, more TD potential, and higher offensive statistics across the board.

Favors Under

The Lions are a 3-point underdog in this week's game, likely creating a passing game script.
Opposing offenses have run for the 8th-least touchdowns in the league (0.60 per game) vs. the Buffalo Bills defense this year.
The Buffalo Bills have stacked the box against opponents on 19.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-most in football. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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