Jamaal Williams Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Jamaal Williams

NFL · Player Props

Jamaal Williams

RB · Detroit Lions

Rushing TD

New York Giants vs Detroit Lions · Week 11, 2022

Updated Nov 21, 2022 12:21 AM UTC

Analysis

Jamaal Williams Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+143/-197).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +147 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +143.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 5th-most plays run out of all the games this week at 130.0 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Detroit Lions O-line ranks as the 4th-best in football this year at blocking for rushers.
Jamaal Williams has rushed for 0.89 TDs per game on the ground this year (on average), one of the largest figures in football among RBs (98th percentile).
The New York Giants safeties grade out as the 31st-worst unit in football this year in regard to run defense.
The New York Giants have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 11.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 5th-least in the NFL. Choosing not to position an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

Favors Under

The Lions are a 3-point underdog in this week's game, indicating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects Jamaal Williams to be a much smaller piece of his offense's rushing attack near the goal line this week (63.9% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been this year (78.4% in games he has played).
Opposing squads have run for the 5th-least TDs in the NFL (0.56 per game) against the New York Giants defense this year.

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