Jamaal Williams Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Jamaal Williams

NFL · Player Props

Jamaal Williams

RB · New Orleans Saints

Receptions

New Orleans Saints vs Tennessee Titans · Week 1, 2023

Updated Sep 10, 2023 7:36 PM UTC

Analysis

Jamaal Williams Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-105/-135).

Key Factors

Favors Over

This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 39.9 pass attempts per game vs. the Tennessee Titans defense since the start of last season: most in the league.
THE BLITZ projects Jamaal Williams to notch 3.1 targets in this week's game, on average, placing him in the 83rd percentile among RBs.
THE BLITZ projects Jamaal Williams to be a much bigger part of his team's pass attack this week (9.3% projected Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (3.0% in games he has played).
The Tennessee Titans pass defense has allowed the 6th-highest Completion% in the league (84.3%) versus RBs since the start of last season (84.3%).

Favors Under

The Saints are a 3-point favorite in this game, which points towards a rushing game script.
The Saints have been the 6th-least pass-oriented offense in football (in a neutral context) since the start of last season with a 55.7% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Saints to run the 5th-least plays on offense on the slate this week with 62.5 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The New Orleans Saints have run the 8th-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a lowly 55.1 plays per game.
Jamaal Williams has been among the weakest pass-game RBs since the start of last season, averaging a lowly 0.7 receptions per game while checking in at the 15th percentile among running backs.

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