Jamaal Williams Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Jamaal Williams

NFL · Player Props

Jamaal Williams

RB · Detroit Lions

Receptions

Minnesota Vikings vs Detroit Lions · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 25, 2022 11:30 PM EST

Analysis

Jamaal Williams Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+158/-208).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -200 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -208.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Lions are a 6.5-point underdog this week, likely creating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Detroit Lions offense as the 10th-fastest paced team in the league (context-neutralized) right now, averaging 26.55 seconds per snap.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 36.3 pass attempts per game against the Minnesota Vikings defense since the start of last season: 7th-most in the league.
Jamaal Williams has been among the most reliable receivers in the NFL among RBs, hauling in a terrific 90.3% of balls thrown his way since the start of last season, checking in at the 92nd percentile.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Detroit Lions as the 7th-least pass-centric offense in football (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 58.7% pass rate.
The Minnesota Vikings pass defense has surrendered the 5th-lowest Completion% in the NFL (75.3%) versus running backs since the start of last season (75.3%).
The Minnesota Vikings safeties profile as the 8th-best safety corps in football since the start of last season in pass coverage.
The Detroit Lions offensive line has given their QB just 2.53 seconds before the pass (8th-worst in football since the start of last season), which has a harmful impact on all air attack statistics across the board.
The Detroit Lions have incorporated play action on a measly 22.0% of their passing plays since the start of last season (6th-least in football), making the offense more predictable and lowering passing effectiveness.

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