Jamaal Williams Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Jamaal Williams

NFL · Player Props

Jamaal Williams

RB · Detroit Lions

Receptions

Detroit Lions vs Philadelphia Eagles · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 12, 2022 2:58 AM UTC

Analysis

Jamaal Williams Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+100/-130).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Lions are a 5.5-point underdog this week, which points towards a passing game script.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Jamaal Williams has been among the most reliable receivers in the NFL among RBs, completing an impressive 92.9% of passes thrown his way since the start of last season, checking in at the 81st percentile.
The Philadelphia Eagles pass defense has given up the 5th-highest Completion% in football (86.1%) versus running backs since the start of last season (86.1%).
The Philadelphia Eagles linebackers profile as the 8th-worst group of LBs in football since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Detroit Lions as the 4th-least pass-heavy offense in football (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 58.3% pass rate.
The Detroit Lions O-line has afforded their QB a mere 2.53 seconds before the pass (9th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all passing attack statistics across the board.
The Philadelphia Eagles pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing QBs a measly 2.40 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 7th-quickest in the NFL since the start of last season.
The Detroit Lions have utilized play action on just 22.0% of their passing plays since the start of last season (6th-least in the league), creating a more one-dimensional offense that hurts passing production.

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