Jamaal Williams Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Jamaal Williams

NFL · Player Props

Jamaal Williams

RB · Detroit Lions

Receiving Yards

Detroit Lions vs Green Bay Packers · Week 9, 2022

Updated Nov 6, 2022 5:16 PM UTC

Analysis

Jamaal Williams Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 12.5 (-105/-115).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Lions are a 4-point underdog in this week's game, likely leading to a passing game script.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
Jamaal Williams has posted a monstrous 3.0 air yards per game this year: 82nd percentile among RBs. (That may not sound like a lot, but most RBs have negative air yards because they are targeted behind the line of scrimmage).
Jamaal Williams's ability to pick up extra yardage has improved this year, notching 6.78 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) vs a measly 4.54 rate last year.
The Green Bay Packers safeties rank as the worst collection of safeties in football this year in pass coverage.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Detroit Lions as the 10th-least pass-heavy offense in the league (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 59.3% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-smallest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 125.0 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing offenses have averaged 28.1 pass attempts per game versus the Green Bay Packers defense this year: least in the league.
The Detroit Lions offensive line ranks as the 7th-worst in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a negative impact on all passing game metrics across the board.
Jamaal Williams's sure-handedness have declined this season, with his Completion% falling off from 92.9% to 75.0%.

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