Jamaal Williams Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Jamaal Williams

NFL · Player Props

Jamaal Williams

RB · Detroit Lions

Receiving Yards

Detroit Lions vs Miami Dolphins · Week 8, 2022

Updated Oct 30, 2022 4:51 PM UTC

Analysis

Jamaal Williams Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 7.5 (-121/-108).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 6.5 @ -124 before it was bet up to 7.5 @ -121.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Lions are a 4-point underdog this week, likely leading to a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Detroit Lions offense as the 9th-fastest paced team in football (context-neutralized) at the present time, averaging 27.70 seconds per snap.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Jamaal Williams has accumulated a colossal 4.0 air yards per game this year: 85th percentile among running backs. (That may not sound like a lot, but most RBs have negative air yards because they are targeted behind the line of scrimmage).
The Miami Dolphins defense has surrendered the 2nd-most receiving yards per game in football (49.0) versus running backs this year.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Detroit Lions to be the 6th-least pass-heavy offense in football (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 58.4% pass rate.
The Detroit Lions offensive line profiles as the 8th-worst in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a negative effect on all pass attack stats across the board.
Jamaal Williams has put up substantially fewer receiving yards per game (6.0) this year than he did last year (12.0).
Jamaal Williams's possession skills have worsened this year, with his Completion% falling off from 92.9% to 66.7%.
Jamaal Williams's receiving efficiency has declined this season, averaging a measly 3.76 yards-per-target compared to a 5.55 rate last season.

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