Jamaal Williams Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Jamaal Williams

NFL · Player Props

Jamaal Williams

RB · Detroit Lions

Receiving Yards

Detroit Lions vs Seattle Seahawks · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 11:20 PM UTC

Analysis

Jamaal Williams Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 16.5 (+115/-145).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 16.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 16.5 @ -145.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Detroit Lions offense has played at the 10th-fastest pace in the NFL (adjusted for context) this year, averaging 26.77 seconds per snap.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Jamaal Williams to total 3.6 targets in this contest, on average, placing him in the 85th percentile among running backs.
THE BLITZ projects Jamaal Williams to be much more involved in his offense's pass game this week (10.2% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (4.6% in games he has played).
Jamaal Williams has accounted for a monstrous 1.4% of his team's air yards this year: 81st percentile among running backs.

Favors Under

The Lions are a 3-point favorite in this week's contest, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Detroit Lions to be the 6th-least pass-centric offense in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 58.4% pass rate.
Jamaal Williams's ball-catching skills have tailed off this year, with his Completion% falling off from 92.9% to 80.0%.
Jamaal Williams has been among the worst running backs in the league at generating extra yardage, averaging a mere 5.50 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) since the start of last season while checking in at the 12th percentile.
The Detroit Lions offensive line has given their quarterback a measly 2.53 seconds before the pass (9th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all passing offense metrics across the board.

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