Jamaal Williams Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Jamaal Williams

NFL · Player Props

Jamaal Williams

RB · Detroit Lions

Carries

Detroit Lions vs Philadelphia Eagles · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 12, 2022 2:43 AM UTC

Analysis

Jamaal Williams Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 7.5 (+100/-130).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 7.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 7.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Detroit Lions to be the 4th-most run-heavy team in football (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 41.7% run rate.
The Philadelphia Eagles defensive tackles project as the 2nd-worst group of DTs in football since the start of last season in regard to run defense.
The Detroit Lions have gone for it on 4th down 27.9% of the time since the start of last season (most in the NFL), which usually means more offensive volume, more TD potential, and higher offensive statistics across the board.

Favors Under

The Lions are a 5.5-point underdog this week, which points towards a passing game script.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Jamaal Williams to be a much smaller piece of his offense's rushing attack this week (32.8% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (51.2% in games he has played).

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