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Jalen Tolbert

Jalen Tolbert Receptions
Player Prop Week 4

New York Giants vs Dallas Cowboys

Jalen Tolbert Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-120/-109).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -108 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -109.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The projections expect the Cowboys to be the 5th-most pass-heavy team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 63.1% pass rate.

The leading projections forecast this game to have the 2nd-highest number of plays run out of all the games this week at 131.8 plays, given the play styles of each team and game dynamics.

The 3rd-largest volume of plays in football have been run by the Cowboys since the start of last season (a massive 60.6 per game on average).

The weather forecast calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, and reduced rush volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.

Jalen Tolbert's 80.8% Route Participation Rate this year shows a substantial improvement in his pass game utilization over last year's 39.5% rate.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

This game's line implies a running game script for the Cowboys, who are favored by 4 points.

Dallas's passing stats since the start of last season may be artificially too high (and rushing stats reduced) in light of playing the 3rd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the NFL. We should be able to count on some correction with windier weather in this week's contest.

As it relates to linebackers in covering receivers, New York's group of LBs has been one of the most skilled since the start of last season, profiling as the 6th-best in football.

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