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Jalen Tolbert

Jalen Tolbert Receptions
Player Prop Week 11

Dallas Cowboys vs Houston Texans

Jalen Tolbert Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-110/-120).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -120.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Cowboys may lean on the pass less this week (and call more rushes) as a result of being be forced to start backup quarterback Cooper Rush.

An extreme passing game script is indicated by the Cowboys being a huge -7.5-point underdog in this week's game.

Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Cowboys to pass on 60.6% of their plays: the 6th-greatest rate on the slate this week.

The predictive model expects this game to see the 2nd-most plays run on the slate this week at 133.5 plays, accounting for the traits of each team and game dynamics.

The Cowboys have run the 8th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a monstrous 59.7 plays per game.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Opposing teams teams have been hesitant to pass too much against the Texans, totaling the 9th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a mere 32.3 per game) this year.

The Dallas offensive line ranks as the worst in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful impact on all pass attack statistics across the board.

The Houston Texans pass defense has allowed the 5th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the league (59.1%) to WRs this year (59.1%).

When it comes to cornerbacks in defending receivers, Houston's unit has been phenomenal this year, projecting as the 10th-best in the league.

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