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Jalen Tolbert

Jalen Tolbert Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 2

Dallas Cowboys vs New Orleans Saints

 
 
 
Jalen Tolbert Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 23.5 (-110/-110).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The model projects the Cowboys to be the 9th-most pass-focused offense among all teams this week with a 60.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • Given the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is expected by our trusted projection set to see 134.3 offensive plays called: the 2nd-most out of all the games this week.
  • The 7th-largest volume of plays in the league have been called by the Dallas Cowboys since the start of last season (a colossal 60.2 per game on average).
  • This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
  • The model projects Jalen Tolbert to be much more involved in his offense's pass attack in this game (11.0% projected Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (5.7% in games he has played).

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • A rushing game script is suggested by the Cowboys being a 6-point favorite this week.
  • Jalen Tolbert has been one of the weakest WRs in the NFL at picking up extra yardage, averaging a mere 1.09 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) since the start of last season while ranking in the 6th percentile.
  • The Saints pass defense has allowed the 4th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the league (58.7%) to WRs since the start of last season (58.7%).
  • The Saints safeties profile as the 10th-best safety corps in the league since the start of last season in pass coverage.

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