Jalen Tolbert Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Jalen Tolbert

NFL · Player Props

Jalen Tolbert

WR · Dallas Cowboys

Receiving Yards

Los Angeles Chargers vs Dallas Cowboys · Week 6, 2023

Updated Oct 17, 2023 12:16 AM UTC

Analysis

Jalen Tolbert Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 8.5 (+100/-130).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 8.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 8.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Our trusted projections expect the Cowboys offensive scheme to skew 3.2% more towards the passing game than it did last season (context-neutralized) with offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer now calling the plays.
The Chargers defense has been something of pass funnel this year, allowing opposing QBs to attempt the 4th-most passes in the NFL (40.8 per game) this year.
Jalen Tolbert has accumulated quite a few more air yards this year (21.0 per game) than he did last year (6.0 per game).
Jalen Tolbert's 15.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that quantifies high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially better this season than it was last season at 3.6.
This year, the deficient Los Angeles Chargers defense has yielded a massive 227.0 adjusted receiving yards per game vs. opposing WRs: the worst in football.

Favors Under

The projections expect the Dallas Cowboys to be the least pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 56.9% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The leading projections forecast the Cowboys to run the 5th-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 66.7 plays, given their underlying play style and game dynamics.

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