Jalen Tolbert Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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Jalen Tolbert

NFL · Player Props

Jalen Tolbert

WR · Dallas Cowboys

Receiving Yards

Dallas Cowboys vs New York Jets · Week 2, 2023

Updated Sep 18, 2023 2:51 AM EST

Analysis

Jalen Tolbert Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 16.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 17.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 16.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Dallas Cowboys will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.4% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Jalen Tolbert to be a much bigger part of his offense's passing attack this week (9.4% projected Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (1.5% in games he has played).

Favors Under

The Cowboys are an enormous 8.5-point favorite this week, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Dallas Cowboys to be the 11th-least pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 54.9% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-smallest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 124.9 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Jalen Tolbert has put up a meager 6.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: a lowly 11th percentile among wideouts.
The New York Jets defense has surrendered the least receiving yards per game in football (just 103.0) to wide receivers since the start of last season.

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