Jalen Tolbert Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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Jalen Tolbert

NFL · Player Props

Jalen Tolbert

WR · Dallas Cowboys

Receiving Yards

Dallas Cowboys vs Philadelphia Eagles · Week 14, 2023

Updated Dec 11, 2023 1:26 AM UTC

Analysis

Jalen Tolbert Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 15.5 (-113/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 15.5 @ -109 before it was bet up to 15.5 @ -113.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Dallas Cowboys feature a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer, and the predictive model expects their pass/run mix to lean 7.2% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Cowboys to pass on 62.1% of their chances: the 3rd-greatest rate on the slate this week.
As far as a defense's influence on tempo, at 27.89 seconds per play, the model projects the Dallas Cowboys to be the 10th-fastest in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Opposing offenses have averaged 41.9 pass attempts per game against the Philadelphia Eagles defense this year: most in the league.

Favors Under

This game's line implies a rushing game script for the Cowboys, who are favored by 3.5 points.
Jalen Tolbert comes in as one of the worst WRs in the league at grinding out extra yardage, averaging just 1.47 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while checking in at the 17th percentile.
This year, the fierce Eagles pass defense has conceded the 7th-least yards-after-the-catch in football to opposing WRs: a mere 3.5 YAC.

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