Jalen Tolbert Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 1

NFL · Player Props

Jalen Tolbert

WR · Dallas Cowboys

Receiving TD

Dallas Cowboys vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 9, 2022 3:24 PM UTC

Analysis

Jalen Tolbert Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+369/-743).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -466 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -743.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Cowboys to call the 3rd-most total plays among all teams this week with 64.7 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Dallas Cowboys have called the 2nd-most plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a colossal 66.6 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
The Dallas Cowboys offensive line grades out as the best in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive impact on all pass game statistics across the board.
The Dallas Cowboys offensive line has allowed their QB 2.53 seconds before getting pressured (9th-best in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a positive effect on all pass attack stats across the board.

Favors Under

The Dallas Cowboys have played in the 2nd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in football since the start of last season, which ought to lead to lower pass volume, increased running volume, and reduced passing attack results when facing windier conditions in this game.
Opposing offenses have averaged 39.5 pass attempts per game versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense since the start of last season: most in football.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers pass defense has surrendered the 7th-lowest Completion% in football (62.7%) versus WRs since the start of last season (62.7%).
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense has yielded the 8th-least passing touchdowns in the NFL to wide receivers: 0.82 per game since the start of last season.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers safeties rank as the 4th-best group of safeties in the NFL since the start of last season in covering receivers.