Jalen Reagor Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Jalen Reagor

NFL · Player Props

Jalen Reagor

WR · New England Patriots

Receptions

New England Patriots vs Washington Commanders · Week 9, 2023

Updated Nov 6, 2023 3:21 AM UTC

Analysis

Jalen Reagor Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+141/-185).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -169 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ +141.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The leading projections forecast the New England Patriots to call the 6th-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 65.5 plays, given their underlying play style and game dynamics.
Opposing QBs have averaged 37.8 pass attempts per game vs. the Commanders defense this year: 10th-most in football.
Our trusted projections expect Jalen Reagor to be much more involved in his offense's passing offense this week (10.5% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (3.5% in games he has played).
As it relates to linebackers in defending receivers, Washington's unit has been very bad this year, projecting as the 2nd-worst in football.

Favors Under

The predictive model expects the Patriots to be the 6th-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 55.7% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The New England offensive line grades out as the 8th-worst in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative impact on all passing attack stats across the board.
Jalen Reagor grades out as one of the weakest wide receivers in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a lowly 0.7 adjusted catches per game while ranking in the 3rd percentile among wide receivers.

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