Jalen Reagor Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Jalen Reagor

NFL · Player Props

Jalen Reagor

WR · New England Patriots

Receiving Yards

New England Patriots vs Washington Commanders · Week 9, 2023

Updated Nov 6, 2023 1:06 AM UTC

Analysis

Jalen Reagor Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 25.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 15.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 25.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The leading projections forecast the New England Patriots to call the 6th-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 65.5 plays, given their underlying play style and game dynamics.
Opposing QBs have averaged 37.8 pass attempts per game vs. the Commanders defense this year: 10th-most in football.
Our trusted projections expect Jalen Reagor to be much more involved in his offense's passing offense this week (10.5% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (3.5% in games he has played).
This year, the shaky Washington Commanders defense has surrendered a massive 203.0 adjusted receiving yards per game vs. opposing wideouts: the most in the league.
The Commanders pass defense has exhibited bad efficiency versus wide receivers this year, surrendering 10.29 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the most in football.

Favors Under

The predictive model expects the Patriots to be the 6th-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 55.7% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Jalen Reagor has posted a paltry 12.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: just 22nd percentile among WRs.
The New England offensive line grades out as the 8th-worst in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative impact on all passing attack stats across the board.
With a lackluster 9.0 adjusted yards per game through the air (7th percentile) since the start of last season, Jalen Reagor rates as one of the weakest WRs in the game in football.

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