Jalen Hurts TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Jalen Hurts

NFL · Player Props

Jalen Hurts

QB · Philadelphia Eagles

TD Passes

Philadelphia Eagles vs Pittsburgh Steelers · Week 15, 2024

Updated Dec 15, 2024 9:06 PM EST

Analysis

Jalen Hurts TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+195/-265).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ +215 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ +195.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Calm weather conditions (like the 4-mph wind being called for in this game) usually correlate with better passing effectiveness, higher TD potential, higher pass volume, and reduced run volume.
In regards to pass protection (and the strong effect it has on all passing offense metrics), the O-line of the Philadelphia Eagles ranks as the 10th-best in the NFL this year.
The Pittsburgh Steelers cornerbacks profile as the worst group of CBs in the NFL this year in defending receivers.

Favors Under

The Eagles are a 5.5-point favorite in this game, which points towards a running game script.
Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Eagles to pass on 46.8% of their chances: the 2nd-lowest clip on the slate this week.
The leading projections forecast the Philadelphia Eagles to be the 2nd-least pass-centric offense in the league near the end zone (context-neutralized) right now with a 45.1% red zone pass rate.
The predictive model expects the Eagles offense to be the 5th-slowest paced team in football (adjusted for context) right now, averaging 28.99 seconds per snap.
The projections expect Jalen Hurts to attempt 27.8 passes in this week's contest, on average: the 6th-fewest out of all quarterbacks.

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