Jalen Hurts TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Jalen Hurts

NFL · Player Props

Jalen Hurts

QB · Philadelphia Eagles

TD Passes

Los Angeles Rams vs Philadelphia Eagles · Week 5, 2023

Updated Oct 9, 2023 12:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Jalen Hurts TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+108/-138).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -140 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -138.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Opposing offenses have played at the 5th-quickest tempo in football (in a neutral context) against the Eagles defense this year, averaging 26.21 seconds per play.
The Philadelphia Eagles O-line ranks as the 5th-best in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a strong impact on all pass game statistics across the board.
When it comes to linebackers in covering receivers, Los Angeles's collection of LBs has been atrocious this year, ranking as the 3rd-worst in football.

Favors Under

A running game script is indicated by the Eagles being a 3.5-point favorite this week.
Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Philadelphia Eagles to pass on 55.9% of their downs: the 9th-lowest clip on the slate this week.
Our trusted projections expect the Eagles to be the least pass-heavy offense in the NFL near the end zone (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 49.4% red zone pass rate.
Opposing teams teams have been afraid to test the pass defense of the Los Angeles Rams, averaging the 6th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a mere 33.5 per game) this year.
This year, the imposing Rams defense has conceded a measly 0.75 TDs through the air per game to opposing QBs: the 3rd-best rate in the league.

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