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Jalen Hurts

Jalen Hurts TD Passes
Player Prop Week 14

Dallas Cowboys vs Philadelphia Eagles

Jalen Hurts TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+106/-136).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -138 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -136.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Philadelphia Eagles boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Brian Johnson, and the leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to lean 1.1% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).

This game's spread implies a throwing game script for the Eagles, who are -3.5-point underdogs.

The passing games of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may drop.

The Philadelphia offensive line profiles as the best in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive influence on all pass attack metrics across the board.

Jalen Hurts is positioned as one of the most on-target QBs in the league this year with a fantastic 67.5% Adjusted Completion%, checking in at the 75th percentile.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

At the present time, the least pass-centric offense in the NFL near the end zone (44.2% adjusted for context) according to the model is the Eagles.

The predictive model expects the Philadelphia Eagles offense to be the 7th-slowest paced team in football (context-neutralized) at the moment, averaging 28.60 seconds per play.

Opposing teams have averaged 31.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Dallas Cowboys defense this year: 3rd-fewest in football.

Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 2nd-lowest rate in the NFL against the Dallas Cowboys defense this year (63.9% Adjusted Completion%).

The Dallas Cowboys linebackers project as the 4th-best group of LBs in the league this year in defending receivers.

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