Jalen Hurts TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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Jalen Hurts

NFL · Player Props

Jalen Hurts

QB · Philadelphia Eagles

TD Passes

Philadelphia Eagles vs San Francisco 49ers · Week 13, 2023

Updated Dec 4, 2023 4:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Jalen Hurts TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+100/-130).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -125 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Eagles are a 3-point underdog in this week's contest, likely creating a passing game script.
The predictive model expects the Philadelphia Eagles to be the 8th-most pass-focused offense on the slate this week with a 58.4% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
The 7th-most plays in the league have been run by the Philadelphia Eagles this year (a staggering 60.9 per game on average).
The pass games of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the still weather conditions (3-mph wind) being projected in this game, while rush volume may decline.
The San Francisco 49ers defense has been something of pass funnel this year, allowing opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 7th-most passes in the NFL (38.3 per game) this year.

Favors Under

Right now, the least pass-oriented offense in the league in the red zone (46.8% in a neutral context) according to the model is the Philadelphia Eagles.
The leading projections forecast the Eagles to call the 3rd-fewest offensive plays among all teams this week with 62.2 plays, given their underlying propensities and game dynamics.
The model projects Jalen Hurts to throw 33.5 passes in this week's contest, on balance: the 8th-fewest out of all quarterbacks.
This year, the formidable San Francisco 49ers defense has surrendered a paltry 1.00 touchdowns through the air per game to opposing QBs: the 3rd-lowest rate in football.
The 49ers linebackers rank as the 2nd-best LB corps in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.

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