Jalen Hurts TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Jalen Hurts

NFL · Player Props

Jalen Hurts

QB · Philadelphia Eagles

TD Passes

Houston Texans vs Philadelphia Eagles · Week 9, 2022

Updated Nov 4, 2022 12:16 AM EST

Analysis

Jalen Hurts TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-165/+125).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -150 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -165.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the most plays run out of all the games this week at 133.9 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Philadelphia Eagles have run the 4th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a colossal 62.7 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
The Philadelphia Eagles O-line grades out as the best in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong effect on all air attack metrics across the board.
Jalen Hurts's passing precision has improved this year, with his Completion% increasing from 60.3% to 65.6%.

Favors Under

The Eagles are a huge 13.5-point favorite this week, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Philadelphia Eagles as the 2nd-least pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 48.0% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Philadelphia Eagles to be the 5th-least pass-centric offense in football near the end zone (adjusted for context) right now with a 51.2% red zone pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects Jalen Hurts to attempt 30.7 passes in this game, on average: the 4th-least of all QBs.
Opposing offenses have averaged 34.1 pass attempts per game against the Houston Texans defense this year: 8th-least in the league.

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