Jalen Hurts TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Jalen Hurts

NFL · Player Props

Jalen Hurts

QB · Philadelphia Eagles

TD Passes

Philadelphia Eagles vs Dallas Cowboys · Week 6, 2022

Updated Oct 17, 2022 12:26 AM EST

Analysis

Jalen Hurts TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+135/-175).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ +140 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ +135.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the highest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 138.7 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Philadelphia Eagles have called the 3rd-most plays in football this year, totaling a whopping 66.0 plays per game.
The weather report calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Opposing teams have averaged 42.2 pass attempts per game against the Dallas Cowboys defense this year: 4th-most in the NFL.
The Philadelphia Eagles O-line ranks as the best in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a strong impact on all passing game stats across the board.

Favors Under

The Eagles are a 6.5-point favorite this week, which points towards a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Philadelphia Eagles to be the least pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 49.8% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Philadelphia Eagles to be the 2nd-least pass-heavy offense in the league near the goal line (in a neutral context) right now with a 50.9% red zone pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects Jalen Hurts to attempt 32.1 passes this week, on average: the 2nd-least of all QBs.
Jalen Hurts has been among the weakest touchdown throwers in the NFL this year, averaging a paltry 0.80 per game while ranking in the 21st percentile.

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