Jalen Hurts TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Jalen Hurts

NFL · Player Props

Jalen Hurts

QB · Philadelphia Eagles

TD Passes

Philadelphia Eagles vs Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 11:20 PM UTC

Analysis

Jalen Hurts TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+102/-130).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ +106 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ +102.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-most plays run on the slate this week at 135.4 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Philadelphia Eagles offensive line ranks as the 3rd-best in the league since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive effect on all air attack metrics across the board.
Jalen Hurts's throwing precision has gotten better this season, with his Completion% rising from 60.3% to 66.4%.
Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 6th-highest rate in the NFL vs. the Jacksonville Jaguars defense since the start of last season (72.4%).
The Jacksonville Jaguars cornerbacks grade out as the 7th-worst group of CBs in the NFL since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.

Favors Under

The Eagles are a 6.5-point favorite this week, which points towards a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Philadelphia Eagles to be the least pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 44.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Philadelphia Eagles to be the 5th-least pass-oriented offense in the NFL near the goal line (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 54.7% red zone pass rate.
The weatherman calls for 17-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Jalen Hurts to attempt 28.3 passes in this week's contest, on average: the least of all quarterbacks.

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