Jalen Hurts TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 22

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Jalen Hurts

NFL · Player Props

Jalen Hurts

QB · Philadelphia Eagles

TD Passes

Philadelphia Eagles vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 22, 2022

Updated Feb 12, 2023 10:26 PM EST

Analysis

Jalen Hurts TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+390/-590).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ +390.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the least plays run on the slate this week at 138.6 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Philadelphia Eagles have called the 10th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a monstrous 59.6 plays per game.
Opposing QBs have averaged 35.5 pass attempts per game vs. the Kansas City Chiefs defense this year: 6th-most in the NFL.
The Philadelphia Eagles offensive line ranks as the best in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive effect on all pass game statistics across the board.
Jalen Hurts's throwing accuracy has improved this year, with his Completion% jumping from 59.6% to 66.2%.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Philadelphia Eagles as the least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 54.2% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Philadelphia Eagles to be the least pass-centric offense in football near the goal line (in a neutral context) right now with a 47.1% red zone pass rate.
The forecast calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Jalen Hurts to attempt 35.0 passes in this week's game, on average: the least of all quarterbacks.
The Kansas City Chiefs safeties grade out as the 7th-best collection of safeties in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.

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