Jalen Hurts TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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NFL · Player Props

Jalen Hurts

QB · Philadelphia Eagles

TD Passes

Indianapolis Colts vs Philadelphia Eagles · Week 11, 2022

Updated Nov 21, 2022 12:21 AM UTC

Analysis

Jalen Hurts TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+115/-145).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -135 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -145.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-highest volume of plays run among all games this week at 137.9 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
The Philadelphia Eagles O-line ranks as the 6th-best in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong impact on all passing attack statistics across the board.
Jalen Hurts's passing accuracy has been refined this season, with his Completion% jumping from 60.3% to 67.5%.
Opposing teams have completed passes at the 10th-highest clip in football versus the Indianapolis Colts defense this year (72.4%).

Favors Under

The Eagles are a big 7-point favorite this week, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Philadelphia Eagles to be the 9th-least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 54.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Philadelphia Eagles as the 4th-least pass-heavy team in the NFL near the end zone (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 49.9% red zone pass rate.
Opposing offenses have averaged 31.8 pass attempts per game versus the Indianapolis Colts defense this year: 4th-least in football.
The Indianapolis Colts have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 13.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-least in the NFL. Choosing not to keep an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.