Jalen Hurts Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Jalen Hurts

NFL · Player Props

Jalen Hurts

QB · Philadelphia Eagles

Rushing TD

Houston Texans vs Philadelphia Eagles · Week 9, 2022

Updated Nov 4, 2022 12:16 AM EST

Analysis

Jalen Hurts Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-118/-113).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ -104 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ -118.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Eagles are a huge 13.5-point favorite this week, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Philadelphia Eagles as the 5th-most run-centric team in the league near the end zone (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 48.8% red zone run rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the most plays run out of all the games this week at 133.9 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Philadelphia Eagles have run the 4th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a colossal 62.7 plays per game.
Jalen Hurts isn't afraid to call his own number near the end zone, accounting for 40.9% of his [OFFENSE_TEAMS]'s red zone carries this year (97th percentile among quarterbacks).

Favors Under

The Philadelphia Eagles have gone up against a stacked the box on 18.9% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-most in the league. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Philadelphia Eagles have utilized motion in their offense on 28.1% of their play-calls since the start of last season (4th-least in football), which usually makes an offense more predictable and less effective.

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